Published on 03/26/2026
Global markets have entered a new cycle of uncertainty following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the war involving Iran has disrupted a stronger global economic recovery trajectory while reigniting significant inflationary pressures.
One of the main concerns is the near halt of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most strategic routes in the world for energy flows. This disruption has a direct impact on global prices, increasing production costs, pressuring supply chains, and reducing purchasing power across multiple economies.
Before the escalation of the conflict, the global economy was showing consistent signs of acceleration. However, this outlook has been largely neutralized. Current projections indicate that global GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.3% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with a slight recovery to 3.0% in 2027.
This slowdown occurs despite positive factors such as increased investment in technology, reduced effective trade tariffs, and the momentum carried over from previous growth. Even so, rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty have been enough to offset these gains.
On the inflation front, the impact is even more evident. The OECD projects that inflation in G20 economies will reach 4.0% in 2026, representing an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to previous estimates. For 2027, inflation is expected to ease to 2.7%, assuming that pressures in the energy market begin to moderate.
The projections are based on a technical assumption that prices for oil, gas, and fertilizers will gradually decline from mid-2026 onward. However, this outlook heavily depends on how the conflict evolves. Any escalation or prolonged tensions could generate new supply shocks and further intensify the negative impact on global growth.
Additionally, geopolitical developments continue to play a central role in shaping macroeconomic expectations. A prolonged conflict may directly affect investor confidence, reduce consumption, and lead to a sharper slowdown in global economic activity.
For financial markets, this environment translates into increased volatility, particularly in energy-related assets, currencies, and commodities. At the same time, it creates opportunities for strategies capable of quickly adapting to changing conditions and capturing short-term market movements.
At AIFinex, we use advanced technology to continuously analyze market behavior, enabling our strategies to automatically adjust to changing conditions and fluctuations in volatility. This contributes to more precise and disciplined execution, especially during periods of global instability.
In an environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures, closely monitoring key indicators and market movements becomes essential for decision-making.
Be prepared for a constantly evolving market landscape.
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